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χ² 为各档 z² 之和，df = 档数 − 1 = 9；逐档 p 已按同时比较 10 档做 Bonferroni 校正（见 p_bonf），判定请以 p_bonf 为准。","interpretation":"若「久未出该出了」成立，右端几档的命中率应显著高于基线；若各档平在 14.286%，则遗漏长度不提供任何信息。"},"current_ranking":[{"number":27,"omission":32,"tail_p":0.007206,"total":285},{"number":7,"omission":27,"tail_p":0.015575,"total":299},{"number":9,"omission":22,"tail_p":0.033664,"total":287},{"number":30,"omission":16,"tail_p":0.084889,"total":322},{"number":16,"omission":15,"tail_p":0.099037,"total":305},{"number":33,"omission":15,"tail_p":0.099037,"total":277},{"number":36,"omission":15,"tail_p":0.099037,"total":309},{"number":42,"omission":14,"tail_p":0.115543,"total":310},{"number":11,"omission":12,"tail_p":0.157267,"total":316},{"number":13,"omission":12,"tail_p":0.157267,"total":276}],"memoryless_note":"几何分布无记忆：已连空 k 期后，**再等**到开出的期望期数恒为 1/p = 7.00 期，与 k 无关。","ranking_caveat":"当前遗漏排行只是观测记录。遗漏从 30 期继续到 31 期的概率是 0.8571，与遗漏 0 期时完全相同 —— 排行不代表「即将开出」。"},"fallacy":{"claims":[{"id":"due_theory","claim":"某个号很久没出，所以它「该出了」","why_it_feels_true":"遗漏越久，看起来越「欠」一次。","test":"omission.conditional：遗漏 ≥15 期那一档的命中率 vs 14.286% 基线","statistic":"13.958%","baseline":"14.286%","p_value":0.3295,"status":"no_support","explain":"遗漏 ≥15 期的号码，命中率 13.958%（n=10868），与基线 14.286% 的差为 -0.98 个标准差。几何分布无记忆：连空多久都不改变下一期的概率。"},{"id":"repeat_structure","claim":"重号比随机情况更多（上期开过的号更容易再开）","why_it_feels_true":"「重号」是最常被提起的现象之一。","test":"features.lag_overlap：相邻两期平码交集 vs 独立期望 0.735 个","statistic":"0.7965 个/期","baseline":"0.7347 个/期","p_value":0.000185,"status":"supported","explain":"滞后 1 期的平均交集 0.7965，独立期望 0.7347，z=+3.74。这是一个**真实存在但极小**的结构：每期多约 0.06 个重号。"},{"id":"repeat_actionable","claim":"所以押「上期开过的号」能提高命中率","why_it_feels_true":"结构上有偏差，看起来应该能利用。","test":"rules.omit_min：每期押遗漏最小的号（即刚开出的号），样本外回测","statistic":"1.933%","baseline":"2.041%","p_value":0.73897,"status":"no_support","explain":"**结构偏差 ≠ 可利用**：上面那 0.06 个/期的偏差摊到「单个号码」上只有约 0.8 个百分点，而特码仍是 1/49。这条规则实测并不显著。"},{"id":"hot","claim":"追热有效：近期开得多的号会继续开","why_it_feels_true":"热号看起来有「势头」。","test":"rules.hot_50：每期用此前 50 期最热的号押下一期（样本外）","statistic":"1.985%","baseline":"2.041%","p_value":0.86378,"status":"no_support","explain":"样本外 1914 期命中 38 次（1.985%），z=-0.17。"},{"id":"cold","claim":"追冷有效：久未出的号会「回补」","why_it_feels_true":"与「该出了」同源。","test":"rules.cold_200：每期用此前 200 期最冷的号押下一期","statistic":"1.776%","baseline":"2.041%","p_value":0.41324,"status":"no_support","explain":"样本外 1914 期命中 34 次，z=-0.82。"},{"id":"uniform","claim":"49 个号里有「特别旺」和「特别衰」的号","why_it_feels_true":"任何 49 个计数都会有几个偏高偏低。","test":"stats.uniformity：49 号频次的卡方检验","statistic":"见「统计观测」页","baseline":"每号 42.9 次（2114 期）","p_value":null,"status":"refer","ref":"observe","explain":"看「统计观测」页的均匀性检验：不显著则这些高低差都在噪声带内。"},{"id":"adjacent","claim":"连号（如 23-24）出现得多，说明有规律","why_it_feels_true":"连号看起来「太巧了」。","test":"features.adjacent：连号对数分布 vs 精确枚举","statistic":"χ²=7.8","baseline":"随机下每期平均 0.49 对","p_value":0.164614,"status":"no_support","explain":"连号在随机组合里本来就常见：6 个号两两之间 5 个间隙，每个约 6/49 概率相邻。"},{"id":"sum_reversion","claim":"上期和值偏大，下期就该偏小（和值会回归）","why_it_feels_true":"「均值回归」是个真概念 —— 但它描述的是独立抽样，不是预测。","test":"_sum_reversion：按上期和值高于/低于中位数分组，比较下一期和值均值","statistic":"151.05 vs 150.17","baseline":"理论均值 150.0","p_value":0.5387,"status":"no_support","explain":"上期和值高于中位数（151）时，下期均值 151.05；低于时 150.17；差 +0.88，z=+0.61。"},{"id":"lucky_tail","claim":"吉尾（6/8/9）开得多，忌尾（4/7）开得少","why_it_feels_true":"民间偏好真实存在，但偏好影响的是**下注**，不是开奖。","test":"preference.factor_test：吉尾/忌尾组在特码中的出现率","statistic":"吉尾 z=+2.12 / 忌尾 z=-1.26","baseline":"吉尾 30.61% / 忌尾 20.41%","p_value":0.1372,"status":"no_support","explain":"p 值已按 4 组比较做 Bonferroni 校正。若方向与「吉多忌少」相反，说明开奖侧没有这种偏好（偏好只存在于下注侧）。"},{"id":"rigged","claim":"庄家在控号：热门号被系统性压制","why_it_feels_true":"庄家确实有动机。","test":"features.lag_overlap + preference.factor_test + drift","statistic":"见「玩家偏好」「统计观测」","baseline":"—","p_value":null,"status":"refer","ref":"preference","explain":"控号必然对当期注量反应 → 分布随时间非平稳；且热门号应被压制。两者都可在对应页面查。"},{"id":"era","claim":"最近换了一批机器/换了一批人，规律和以前不一样了","why_it_feels_true":"任何数据集都可能会变。","test":"drift.changepoint：扫描所有切分点找两段最不一致的位置","statistic":"见「漂移检测」","baseline":"—","p_value":null,"status":"refer","ref":"drift","explain":"漂移页给出变点位置与置换 p 值；全样本检验会把这类变化平均掉。"}],"traps":[{"id":"accuracy_trap","claim":"模型预测大小准确率 51%，很准","trap":"恒猜「大」的准确率就是 51.02%（大号 25 个 / 49）。任何 51% 左右的准确率都等于零信息。","fix":"看 log-loss 与基线（ln2=0.693）的差，并给出混淆矩阵。"},{"id":"coverage_trap","claim":"押 10 个号，中奖率提高到 20.4%","trap":"P(至少中一个) = 10/49 是恒等式，成本同步涨 10 倍，EV 完全不变。","fix":"比较每元期望回报，而不是命中率。"}],"summary":{"supported":1,"no_support":7,"contradicted":0,"refer":3},"headline":"1 条说法被数据支持，0 条方向相反，7 条未检出支持证据","disclaimer":"「未检出支持证据」不等于「证明为假」—— 请结合各页的检验力边界。"},"caveat":"所有结论均绑定 fingerprint；数据一变，本报告不可复用。"}